- We are talking to you on the day of Dzhabrailov’s arrest...

Already arrested? Not detention?

- So far the arrest has been made, but charges have been filed: hooliganism. Shot at the hotel. Four Seasons. Near Red Square.

Well, it's okay. I think they will let me go. Maximum - subscription. (While he was writing, he was released on bail. Either someone knocks on him, or he writes the script himself. - D.B.)

- But before he was generally inviolable...

Let there be no one untouchable now, except for the narrowest circle. The problem is not that there are no institutions in Russia, but that a typical Russian institution—the roof—stops working. A month ago they hinted to me that two banks were under attack - Otkritie and another one, considered ethnic, and that there would not be enough funds to save both. Otkritie has just been saved. So, should the remaining jar be ready? And there’s such a roof there!

- And Kadyrov? They don't want to change him?

They wanted to replace him for a long time.

- After the murder of Nemtsov?

After Nemtsov’s murder, he even left Russia for a while. But the idea was there even earlier, they even say they found a replacement - but that person had not been to Chechnya for a long time and did not come up. However, for Kadyrov this would be an honorable removal: we were talking about the status of deputy prime minister. But without a briefcase.

- Did people in Chechnya know about this alleged exchange?

Yes. And Kadyrov, naturally, knew. After all, this is his famous phrase that he is “Putin’s foot soldier” means readiness to obey any order of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief.

Has Putin already firmly decided to go to the polls?

Judging by the fact that the election campaign is in full swing, yes. Actually, everything became clear when meetings with young people began: the Kremlin realized that they were missing out on them. However, the president meets with young people not only out of obligation: he seems to enjoy communicating with them.

- What about them?

Im not sure.

- Why, it’s interesting: Schubert, syphilis...

Schubert had syphilis. And there were problems with women. But still, young people are more interested in other things, and Putin does not quite speak their language. His PR does not look brilliant at all yet: a photo shoot with a naked torso is not the most successful replica of a photo shoot ten years ago.

- Do you think this is the last time - or will it remain forever?

I think that this is not even the last deadline, but a transit. He will be elected and leave Yeltsin's scenario in two or three years.

When four years ago Khodorkovsky gave such a forecast - just to Sobesednik - everyone laughed, but today it is almost a common place...

Well, it's definitely no laughing matter now. There are signs that the situation is getting out of control. How exactly it will turn out, how traumatic it will be, is still unclear: in such historical cases there is always a colossal number of unknown variables, and they are added to. There is a smooth scenario - something like a repetition of December 31, 1999. There is a rough, but peaceful one - with the participation of the street, but without violence. As the events of 1991 and 1993 show, the army is extremely reluctant to shoot at its compatriots. Well, if, God forbid, blood is shed, then the experience of the Kyiv Maidan shows that even a peaceful revolution after the first deaths dramatically changes its character. About 120 people were killed in Kyiv, and after that the Yanukovych regime was doomed, no matter what conditions and compromises it later made. If everything goes smoothly, Putin will simply hand over power to his successor.

- Shoigu?

Hardly. There is no complete, unconditional trust in Shoigu. It seems that the President and the Minister of Defense are very close, but the impression is that, along with attraction, there is also some kind of psychological repulsion. Perhaps because Putin and Shoigu are similar in something very important: they both have a certain messianism. At the same time, Shoigu is almost the most popular minister in Russia, which is largely due to his brilliant PR service, dating back to the times of the Ministry of Emergency Situations. True, I will never believe that, despite his messianism, the Minister of Defense is capable of some daring independent actions.

- Rogozin?

Of course not. He probably really wanted this.

- Then who?

The security forces - both the army and the special services - are discussing Dyumin's candidacy as a foregone conclusion.

- And what is Dyumin-president?

I really doubt his ability to hold on and hold on to the situation. You see, the Putin system is a system tailored personally (I emphasize: personally!) for Putin. This is a pyramid standing on top: shaky, but holding. If the top is removed, the pyramid will fall, but how it will fall is unpredictable.

- And then territorial disintegration?

Lord, what kind of territorial disintegration? Why suddenly, where from? The country is held together by three, pardon the expression, bonds, each of which would be quite enough. Russian language. Russian ruble. Russian culture. The main thing is that no one is rushing out of the Russian Federation, even in Tatarstan the centrifugal forces are insignificant - at most they can ask for some symbolic preferences... Even the North Caucasus, the most dangerous region in this sense, does not understand who to stick with outside of Russia and how to live.

-Who can come to power if the successor does not hold on? Fascists?

Firstly, I wouldn’t even call them “fascists,” because they have no real ideology, no program, no organization. They are capable of giving interviews, but not of building a functioning organization. In addition, they are now driven underground and quite demoralized. Secondly, if you let them be elected to parliament, they will receive five to seven percent (this is even in the best scenario for them). And I am in favor of introducing them into parliament - it is very civilizing and reduces the level of danger. There can be no fascism now, because everyone is lazy. Remember real fascism: Italy, Germany - a colossal tension of forces. And now no one wants to strain at all, there are no ideas, and such things cannot be done without an idea. And those whom you call “fascists” have all the surroundings from the last century, they have not provided any qualitative novelty.

- Do you also rule out mass repressions?

What's the point?

- Pure pleasure.

Even the FSB generals will not get real pleasure from this, or it’s a personal yacht. And their children even more so. I understand why you ask about repressions, but the Serebrennikov case is simply an attempt by the security forces to show who is boss. Unobtrusively so. Otherwise, some already thought that they could influence the first person. No one can, and even then - the first person in eternity, in History. And here and now the security forces rule. What were the chants like at opposition rallies in 2012? “We are the power here!”

- And it seemed to me that this was an undermining of Surkov.

Nothing threatens Surkov. He is inviolable because he conducts all the complex negotiations on Ukraine and Donbass.

- By the way, about Ukraine. What do you think is the fate of Donbass?

The longer he stays outside Ukraine, the more difficult it will be to integrate him there, and the time limit, as it seems to me, is five years. After this, alienation and hostility can become difficult to overcome. As the Russian side says at the negotiations: if we weaken support for Donbass, Ukrainian troops will enter there and mass repressions will begin. However, there is a certain compromise option: Donbass comes under temporary international control (UN, for example) and the “blue helmets” enter there. Several years (at least five to seven) will be spent on the reconstruction of the region, the formation of local authorities, etc. Then a referendum is held on its status. Currently, Ukraine is vehemently rejecting the idea of ​​federalization because Russia is proposing it. And if Europe proposes federalization, then Ukraine may accept this idea.

- And no Zakharchenko?

He will go somewhere... If not to Argentina, then to Rostov.

- What do you think: in the summer of 2014 it was possible to go to Mariupol, Kharkov, and then everywhere?

In April 2014, this could have been done much easier, and no one would have been able to defend themselves. One local high-ranking character, we won’t name names (although we know), called Turchinov and said: if you resist, in two hours the landing force will land on the roof of the Verkhovna Rada. He wouldn't have landed, of course, but it sounded so convincing! Turchinov tried to organize a defense - but his real disposal was only the police with pistols. And he himself was ready to climb onto the roof with a grenade launcher and a helmet...

- Why didn’t you go? Are you afraid that SWIFT will be turned off?

I don't think they would have turned it off. In my opinion, they would swallow it the same way they swallowed Crimea in the end: after all, our main sanctions are for Donbass. But, firstly, it turned out that in Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk the mood is far from the same as in Donetsk. And secondly, let’s even say that you annexed Ukraine entirely - and what to do? There are only two and a half million people in Crimea - and even then its integration into Russia is, frankly speaking, not going smoothly. And here - about forty-five million! And what will you do with them when it is not clear how to deal with your own?

- Actually, there is another scenario. Kim Jong-un will boom - and all our problems will cease to exist.

It won't bang.

- But why? Did he launch a rocket over Japan?

He doesn't have enough of these missiles. And he won't do anything to Guam. The only thing he really threatens is Seoul. But South Korea has the status of a strategic ally of the United States, and after the first strike on Seoul - and there’s really nothing you can do there, the distance is 30-40 km to the border - Trump has a free hand and the Kim regime ceases to exist.

- So it will all end in nothing?

I think that under Trump - yes. My friends from Seoul...

- Sources too?!

Colleagues. And they say that there is no premonition of war and even military threat not felt: the metropolis lives a normal life, people do not panic...

- What do you think is Russia’s real role in Trump’s victory?

Russia (or, as Putin called it, “patriotic hackers”) did launch attacks, after which Obama, he said, warned Putin and the attacks stopped. But all this was before September 2016! Otherwise, Trump's victory is the result of his successful political strategy and Hillary's mistakes. She could not play on the factor of predestination. If you always talk about your uncontested victory, they will want to teach you a lesson. This, by the way, is one of the reasons why Putin is delaying the announcement of the campaign. What did Trump do? His team clearly understood which states they needed to win. Trump has successfully politicized the rednecks, a white middle class that is angry and somewhat stagnant. He showed them the alternative: you vote not for the establishment man, but for the common guy, the flesh and blood of true America. And he won on this. But Trump - and this was understood here - is not so good for Russia: rather, Moscow simply did not like Clinton very much.

- Is there a global revenge of conservatives in the world?

It was possible to believe in these myths in 1660, when Brexit happened at the same time, Trump won and Le Pen had some chances. But Le Pen never had a chance to get past the second round. And then... Relapses happen, an era does not pass without them, but just as the era of Gutenberg ended, so did the time of political conservatism as we previously knew it. People live with other oppositions, other desires, and the fight against globalism is the lot of those who want to live in the “mental Donbass.” There will always be such people, these are their personal ideas, which do not affect anything.

- Isn’t a big war visible on Russian roads?

We are definitely not initiating it. If others start, which is extremely unlikely, they will have to participate, but Russia itself has neither the idea, nor the resource, nor the desire. What war, what are you talking about? Look around: how many volunteered in Donbass? War is an excellent way to solve internal problems, as long as it does not lead to suicide: this is exactly the situation now.

- But why did they take Crimea then? Did they distract you from the protests?

Don't think. The protests were not dangerous. Putin simply wondered: what will remain of him in history? Olympics? And if he really raised Russia from its knees, what did this mean? The idea of ​​appropriating/returning Crimea existed before the Maidan, just in a milder version. Let us buy it from you. It was possible to agree on this with Yanukovych, but then the power in Ukraine collapsed, and Crimea actually fell into his hands.

- And will he remain Russian?

I guess so. It will be written in the Ukrainian Constitution that he is Ukrainian, but everyone will accept it.

- How do you imagine the idea with which post-Putin Russia will live?

Very simple: recovery. Because right now the country and society are seriously ill, and we all feel it. The problem is not even corruption, this is a special case. The problem is the deepest, triumphant, universal immoralism. In absolute absurdity, idiocy, which is palpable at all levels. In the Middle Ages, where we are falling - not due to someone’s evil will, but simply because if there is no movement forward, then the world is rolling backwards. We need a return to normality: normal education, quiet business, objective information. Everyone wants this, and, with a few exceptions, even those around Putin. And everyone will breathe a huge sigh of relief when normality returns. When hatred ceases to be escalated, and fear ceases to be the main emotion. And then money will return to the country quite quickly - including Russian money, withdrawn and hidden. And we will become one of the best launching pads for business, and economic growth within ten to twenty years may turn out to be record-breaking.

- How will we all live together again - so to speak, Krymnash and Namkrysh?

Well, how did you live after the Civil War? You can't imagine how quickly it all becomes overgrown. People sort things out when they have nothing to do, but then everyone will have something to do, because today there is total meaninglessness and aimlessness in the country. This will end - and everyone will find something to do. Except for those, of course, who want to remain irreconcilable. There are five percent of such people in any society, and this is their personal choice.

- Finally, explain: how do they tolerate you at MGIMO?

You know from your own experience that at MGIMO different people. There are retrogrades and liberals, there are right and left. And I am neither one nor the other. I look at everything from the standpoint of ordinary, unbiased common sense. And I can give only one piece of advice to everyone who wants to be a successful interpreter of reality: do not look for insidious plans and malicious intent where banal stupidity, greed and cowardice operate.

There is a bright palette in the assessments of the figure of political scientist Valery Solovy - he is a spy, a Russian nationalist, and a specialist in indoctrination. The incredible accuracy of his forecasts of certain events in the life of the country, willingly or unwillingly, evokes the idea that the professor has his own network of informants in the vertical of power. The general public recognized Valery Solovy after resonant performances on Manezhnaya Square in December 2010 and on the RBC TV channel.

Childhood and youth

The details of the political scientist’s life available in the sources are not rich in facts. Valery Dmitrievich Solovey was born on August 19, 1960 in the Lugansk region of Ukraine, in a city with a promising name - Happiness. There is no information about Nightingale’s childhood.

After high school, Valery became a student at the Faculty of History of Moscow state university. After graduating from university in 1983, he worked for ten years at the Institute of History of the USSR of the Academy of Sciences. In 1987, he successfully defended his dissertation for the scientific degree candidate historical sciences.

Valery Solovy’s further work biography continued at the international foundation for socio-economic and political science research “Gorbachev Foundation”. According to some reports, Solovey worked at the fund until 2008. During this time, he prepared several reports for international organizations, including the UN, was a visiting researcher at the London School of Economics and Political Science, and defended his doctoral dissertation.

By the way, some observers and political scientists reproach Valery for his connections with the foundation and the London School of Economics, believing that both of these institutions a priori cannot be carriers of the ideas of creating a strong Russian state. Simultaneously with his work in these organizations, Valery Solovey held a position on the editorial board and wrote articles in the magazine “Free Thought”.

Since 2009, the political scientist has been a member of the Expert Council of the international analytical journal Geopolitika. The magazine promotes the ideas of preserving Russian identity, statehood, and spreading the Russian language and culture. Famous media personalities work in the editorial office - Oleg Poptsov, Anatoly Gromyko, Giulietto Chiesa. In addition, Valery Solovey heads the Department of Advertising and Public Relations at MGIMO University.

Science and social activities

In 2012, Professor Solovey made an attempt to make himself known more loudly in the political arena by creating and leading the New Force party, which he announced in January of the same year on the Ekho Moskvy radio station. Nationalism, according to the professor, underlies the worldview of normal people, since only through such an attitude towards life will there be a chance to hold onto the country.

Despite the fact that the ideas promoted by the party were understood by people, New Force was not registered with the Ministry of Justice. The party's official website has been blocked, its Twitter and VKontakte pages have been abandoned. This is not surprising, given the right-wing liberal position of Valery Solovy: he does not see nationalism as a threat to society, and does not consider it an ideology.

Nevertheless, Valery Solovey continues to be active. To date, he is the author and co-author of 7 books and more than 70 scientific articles, and the number of online publications and articles in the media numbers in the thousands. It has long become a tradition in the journalistic community to interview one of the most famous political scientists in the country on every more or less significant issue.

Nightingale’s frank, unvarnished notes on his own blog on the Echo of Moscow website, on his personal pages in "Facebook" And "VKontakte" get a lot of comments. Quotes from speeches and the professor’s forecasts (by the way, surprisingly accurate) become the subject of discussion and are taken as the basis for expressing the personal position of concerned citizens on the pages of LiveJournal.

Personal life

All that is known about the personal life of Valery Solovy is that the professor is married and has a son, Pavel. The wife's name is Svetlana Anashchenkova, originally from St. Petersburg, she graduated from the Faculty of Psychology of St. Petersburg State University, and is engaged in publishing children's literature and textbooks.

In 2009, together with his sister Tatyana, also a Doctor of Historical Sciences, Solovey published the book “The Failed Revolution. Historical meanings of Russian nationalism”, which the authors dedicated to their children - Pavel and Fedor.

Valery Solovey now

Valery Solovy’s latest book so far is “Revolution! Fundamentals of revolutionary struggle in the modern era” was published in 2016.

In the fall of 2017, it became known that the leader of the Growth Party, a billionaire and Commissioner for the Protection of Entrepreneurs' Rights, would participate in the Russian presidential elections in 2018. At the party's election headquarters, Valery Solovey was appointed responsible for ideology. The professor believes that from a propaganda point of view, the campaign has already been won, and the goal of Titov’s nomination is to influence economic strategy.

Among Nightingale’s latest “prophecies” are the imminent ripening of a political crisis, the loss of controllability by society, and the worsening crisis in the economy. In addition, on his Facebook page, Valery Dmitrievich expressed the opinion that we should allegedly expect the appearance of Russian volunteers in military conflicts in Yemen, as happened with Libya and Sudan. In other words, Russia will be drawn into another conflict, which will again entail multibillion-dollar expenses and rejection of the country in the international arena.

Nightingale predicts a quick end to Putin’s next presidency, in two or three years, and the reason is not even Vladimir Vladimirovich’s years (much older heads of state are in charge), but because “the people of Russia are tired of Putin.” And then a series of serious changes will follow.

Speaking about a possible successor, Solovey does not consider the Minister of Defense as such, whose candidacy is not directly, but is being discussed in narrow circles. The political scientist drew attention to Shoigu's former deputy, lieutenant general, governor of the Tula region.

On the much-discussed Ukrainian issue and the topic of the US presidential election, Valery Solovey is also straightforward. According to the political scientist, relations with Ukraine will no longer be the same, and Crimea will remain Russian. And Russia, albeit long before the elections, launched attacks, but the victory was due to a successful political strategy, exploitation of the role of the guy next door and mistakes.

Publications

• 2007 – “Meaning, logic and form of Russian revolutions”
• 2008 – “Blood and soil of Russian history”
• 2009 – “The failed revolution. Historical meanings of Russian nationalism"
• 2015 – “Absolute weapon. Fundamentals of psychological warfare and media manipulation."
• 2016 – “Revolution! Fundamentals of revolutionary struggle in the modern era"

On the air of the radio station “Echo of Moscow” is Valery Solovey, political scientist, professor at MGIMO.

The broadcast is hosted by Stanislav Kryuchkov and Andrey Yezhov.

S. Kryuchkov: 15 hours 6 minutes in the Russian capital. This is “Personally Yours”. The program will be hosted by Andrey Ezhov and Stanislav Kryuchkov. And with us today is political scientist, MGIMO professor Valery Solovey. Valery, hello.

V. Solovey: Good afternoon, gentlemen.

S. Kryuchkov: We remind you about our on-air coordinates. You can write to us via SMS +7 985 970-45-45, asking questions to our guest, messages broadcast on the website, and in the Youtube chat where the broadcast is taking place, on Twitter your questions, remarks, comments for the guest.

A. Ezhov: I remind you of the vyzvon account for those who may not remember. We also have a chat in Telegram in experimental mode, join, add and send your questions, remarks and comments there. We have thousands of opportunities to contact our studio and ask a question to political scientist Valery Solovy, who will be with us and with you today in the next hour.

V. Solovey: These elections are considered epochal, historical

Here the Kremlin decided to increase turnout in the presidential elections, quite expectedly, in my opinion, by turning voting into a holiday, organizing performances by creative groups, a consumer goods fair, and even selling food. How justified is this calculation of the Presidential Administration? The Russians will really fall for this, in conditions where, I think, everyone can guess how these elections will end and the result is predetermined. Perhaps this will somehow work for some regions, but Moscow is unlikely.

V. Solovey: You very correctly noted that for some regions this may be very important. The fact is that in Russia there are not enough holidays and, frankly speaking, we live in a northern country and a rather depressive one, especially in winter and, in fact, in spring, most of spring and autumn too.

S. Kryuchkov: Sometimes in the summer.

V. Solovey: Sometimes it happens when summer is depressive. That's why people in Russia love free holidays. Especially in the provinces. This is the first. The second is the revival of the Soviet tradition, which I remember, fortunately you don’t, but now you will have a chance to see how this happened at a time when they really tried to turn the elections into a holiday, to somehow attract people. I think for a certain part it will work. People will have the opportunity to come listen to music, performances by amateur groups and, most importantly, buy something at a discount: even some baked goods, some confectionery. This can attract some voters.

S. Kryuchkov: What is this planning connected with? What is the fundamental difference from the last story with municipal elections, when we heard over and over again about the notorious “drying of turnout”. Back then they tried to reduce turnout, but now they are stimulating it.

V. Solovey: Because these elections are considered epochal, historical. Because this is the last election, as expected, that Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will go to and we need to show him, the city and the world that his support is significant. Therefore, this notorious figure of 70% appeared, 70% turnout and 70% of votes cast for him. As you know, the Presidential Administration has rejected these figures several times, saying that these are all fictions and that there are no plans, even indicative ones.

But, in fact, political competition has already unfolded in the regions, and not in regions far from Moscow, but, in particular, in the Moscow region, in order to not only meet these indicators, but even exceed them. And I can say that they are preparing for this carefully. But there is one rule or strict recommendation that will have to be followed - you cannot create the impression among people in large cities, in cities with over a million people, and in Moscow and St. Petersburg, first of all, that the elections were held dishonestly. That is, there should be no noticeable falsifications at polling stations, in order to avoid provoking political protests. For these ours political authorities will be watching.

What happens there in more remote places with the so-called directed or controlled voting and with the predominant administrative resource is not discussed. Here are Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, several other cities - here they will try to keep everything clean. But you know very well how to ensure attendance. How many hundreds of thousands of municipal and federal employees live in Moscow.

A. Ezhov: You said about the Moscow region, there already in Khimki, in my opinion, kindergarten teachers were mobilized with a very psychedelic NRZB.

V. Solovey: Yes, I’ll see what you mean. But, in fact, this is a blatant and ridiculous manifestation. And the work is carried out very carefully and quite technologically. And I have no doubt that these goals, which are not proclaimed, which are abandoned, will in fact be achieved.

A. Ezhov: But in this story with the lack of holidays in Russia, Misha from Saratov partly agrees, he says: “It’s unlikely that anyone will go for food….

V. Solovey: The atmosphere, yes...

A. Ezhov: ...or an additional day off. These loyal masses will rejoice accordingly.”

V. Solovey: They can, yes.

A. Yezhov: You wrote the other day that the feeling of hopelessness in connection with the approaching 4th or 5th, variously called, Putin’s term, without reason, we have entered an era, a period of serious changes. What will they be like? Is the withdrawal of troops from Syria a start, can this be considered a harbinger of change, or did you have a different kind of change in mind?

V. Solovey: The withdrawal of troops from Syria is important element specifically the electoral campaign, because Putin is suited to the new mandate, presumably the final one, and it shows that the operation was completed successfully. Just like Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin in 1996, before the presidential elections, signed a Decree on the armor of a tank on the completion of the anti-terrorist operation in Chechnya. So, everything is natural.

But, if we started talking about Syria at your suggestion, then I want to tell you that in addition to the political aspect, there is also a military-technical one. Russia does not have enough resources to participate in several local wars at the same time, and since now our private military companies are already participating in the conflict in Libya, well, they are engaged in peaceful activities there, that is, removing minefields, but they are already participating in Sudan and, most likely, will participate in Yemen, then, naturally, it is necessary to cut down somewhere in order to be transferred somewhere. There are few resources. Russia is a poor country, which spends a significant part of its budget on defense and law enforcement, in quotes law enforcement.

V. Solovey: The withdrawal of troops from Syria is an important element of the election campaign

A. Yezhov: This military expansion into Africa that you are talking about, theoretically, if it is full-scale, how media-wise it will correspond to what we saw in Syria, because with Syria it is clear.

V. Solovey: Of course, it will not be full-scale, because there are still not enough resources, and it will be hidden, because it is very difficult. Even with Syria, it was extremely difficult to explain to our society what we were doing there and why.

A. Ezhov: Not everyone can find it on the map.

V. Solovey: And what can we say about Sudan? They still tried to somehow attract Syria to our Orthodoxy. It is clear that these were just far-fetched connections. But you will not be able to attract Sudan or Yemen to Russian interests. For society I mean.

S. Kryuchkov: But nevertheless, leaving this seemingly media-cultivated Syrian vegetable garden in favor of unknown African countries...

V. Solovey: And this will be kept silent. It’s one thing that Russia may have some interests there, including one of the interests that is most likely not economic, although experts on the Internet will explain to us what important geopolitical interests there are. No, the logic here is very simple. As a rule, we try to insert a fuse into the Americans and the West in general wherever we can. The President of Sudan complained that he was being pressured, we - okay, why not help. And he needs this in order to negotiate more successfully with the United States, among other things.

S. Kryuchkov: Regarding the final term, returning to the elections, the 4th, 5th, as you say, Putin, what gives reason to assume that this will be exactly the case? This is the aesthetics of supplication that was demonstrated to us at GAZ, when Putin was moving forward, when the senior site foreman Artem Baranov was shouting... What does this aesthetics testify to?

A. Ezhov: Stylistically, in my opinion, it simply looked Kafkaesque.

V. Solovey: I have a little more experience, this in this case may be some kind of drawback. I can say that all this reminds me of the Chernenko era. The end of the Soviet era. There was a widespread feeling then that it had run its course. And now there is this feeling of exhaustion, by the way, I am not comparing Putin with Chernenko in any sense, these are completely different people both in health and in psychotype, but there is a feeling of exhaustion of the historical era, and it is both mass and elite in nature. Everyone understands that almost 20 years have ended and we must move on to some new quality. But no one has any idea about this new quality or the paths of transition.

Of course, the Presidential Administration is preparing, developing some options, including constitutional reform, but no one knows how this will go. No one even knows where to move, but everyone has a feeling that was formulated during the years of Perestroika and was very popular - this is not how you can live. The era is over. This is now widespread. The overwhelming majority of society wants changes, and the elite, even if they did not want changes, they understand that they are already overdue and they are inevitable.

A. Ezhov: You say that we are entering a period of serious changes after March 18th. And what will be, tritely, the three main steps that we will see? It is clear that forecasts are a thankless task...

V. Solovey: Formation of a government, of course. A government will be formed in May.

A. Yezhov: After the inauguration.

V. Solovey: Yes. And with a high probability, the old prime minister may remain there, but a new person may also come.

S. Kryuchkov: What surprises can await us?

V. Solovey: One of the surprises may be related, I am participating, in particular, now in the election campaign at Mr. Titov’s headquarters, one of the surprises may be related to his successful performance. If he campaigns and performs successfully, it could give him a future beyond the electoral horizon. But we are still in the subjunctive mood.

As for the post of prime minister, it is now believed that Dmitry Anatolyevich should remain. But this does not mean that this will happen, since life is changeable, Vladimir Vladimirovich’s mood and our idea of ​​​​his plans, his future can also change. Several people are believed to have received hints about the possibility of taking over as prime minister. Or they took it as hints. And, as you know, Sergei Semenovich Sobyanin even publicly renounced this high honor, saying that Moscow is his favorite city and it is much more important than Russia. A real man should be concerned with Moscow, not Russia.

S. Kryuchkov: Returning to what you were talking about - the feeling of the exhaustion of the era - is this what the media will work with in Putin’s next term? Because, in my opinion, there was such a feeling during the wave of protests at the turn of the 11th and 12th years, but it was overcome.

V. Solovey: It was overcome largely thanks to Crimea. Because if there had been no Crimea, this feeling of exhaustion would have come much earlier. Because Crimea was a powerful vaccine that was able to temporarily, not forever and even for a short time, reverse the psychological and sociocultural situation. And now the media, after March 18, will face a fundamentally unsolvable task, because they will need to create a positive image of the future, because they can no longer speculate on Ukraine, on Syria, on enemies. People don't care about this anymore. This is clear from surveys. They are interested in their own future here and now in a country called Russia.

What can the media offer? If there is a global discrepancy between the picture they are trying to paint and reality, then this will cause both Soviet era growing aggression. Our society is very aggressive, extremely so. It's angry, partly it's demoralized, but partly it's very angry. A lot of hatred and anger have accumulated in him, and all this can break through.

The main demand in Russia now, the main deficit is not even a shortage of money, it is a deficit of perspective and a deficit of understanding of the future. Sociology generally shows this. And this, I think, shows your personal feeling. People cannot plan their own lives, they are not able to. This is what you have to work with. But in order to give the answer that the media give to society, they must first receive an answer from the supreme power. What is the supreme power planning? It's not clear yet.

A. Ezhov: Based on the expectation better life After the formation of the government, we should expect some loud statements, some next national projects.

V. Solovey: I think that three reforms will be launched, they are being prepared. This is a reform of government, this is a reform of the legal system and what is called economic reform. But all these reforms will be, as I imagine, of a pronounced technocratic nature, that is, the goal of legal reform is not to create an independent court, but to ensure that the court works quickly. Likewise, the purpose of economic reform is not to liberate the small and medium business, reduce taxes - no, to increase labor productivity.

There is such a good historical analogy, this is exactly where Mikhail Sergeevich Gorbachev started, in 85-56 he tried to accelerate, that is, using the resources of the socialist model, to use its advantages to accelerate economic growth. Here is the idea of ​​increasing labor productivity, and the program was developed by Mr. Oreshkin; it is typologically similar to the idea of ​​Gorbachev’s acceleration. Please note that these are technocratic reforms. And in the reform of public administration, in the criteria, the word “democracy” is not there at all, simply not. As far as I know. Maybe it will appear in the final version.

But what is most curious is when these reforms, and they must be carried out, because somehow we need to respond to these mass expectations that we just talked about, that people want clarity and they want something positive. As soon as these reforms begin to be carried out, they will be carried out with the ugliness inherent in Russia and on a colossal scale, this could provoke deterioration, you know, that’s how it is here. And therefore, some of the most experienced officials say: “Listen, we have developed a wonderful project with you, wonderful, but don’t you think that if we start doing something, it won’t get worse.” “Yes, yes,” they say, “but we can’t leave the state of things as they are, everyone is already tired of it. People want some kind of at least external movement.” And now you and I find ourselves in such an unpleasant situation, unpleasant for everyone - for society, for the elites, and for the supreme power too. What not to do is impossible and to do is dangerous.

A. Yezhov: According to your words, by the way, Putin has already allegedly won the upcoming campaign through propaganda by putting forward an initiative to provide monetary incentives for the birth of first-born children. Is this really a strong move? Money in general is not the most prohibitive.

V. Solovey: Firstly, this is a lot of money for the Russian province, 10.5 thousand rubles on average per month for a newborn is very significant with very low salaries, this benefit will be comparable to the salary.

A. Yezhov: But not everyone will get it.

V. Solovey: Of course. But it doesn't matter. The propaganda potential will begin to be realized only after the New Year. Can you imagine what kind of reports our television media will send to the media space, here is a happy family, the whole country will see it. No one will think about the details, in which, as usual, lies the devil that this is not for everyone, there are a number of restrictions. Everyone will be: “Great, this has never happened before.” And this is the image of the future. This is a substitute, that is, a replacement, in fact, for the future. When you start stimulating the birth rate, we look to the future. It will be presented in this way, and I am sure that the propaganda potential of this bill is underestimated, the propaganda around it will be in highest degree successful. Because, from the point of view of PR, I still teach PR, the best speculation is speculation on children. But also on cats.

A. Ezhov: I see, it’s an eternal topic. There are still three months until the elections...

V. Solovey: Well, what three months, what are you talking about...

A. Ezhov: Actually, I mean calendar ones.

V. Solovey: Oh, yes. Chronologically yes.

V. Solovey: Russia does not have enough resources to participate in several local wars at the same time

A. Yezhov: The prospect of a new wave of protests due to the fact that Alexey Navalny has already stated that the campaign is not so much disobedience, but recognition of these elections as illegitimate if he is not registered, it is clear that most likely he will not be registered , should we expect some kind of development here?

V. Solovey: I think that after January 10, when it becomes finally clear that Alexei Navalny will not be able to participate in the elections and the New Year holidays will end, he will have to go to some kind of protest. That is, in the language of psychotherapy, close the gestalt. Otherwise, this whole story with signature verification and the like will be meaningless. But well, you went there, spoke at rallies, you have to react somehow. This will be the first step, which means protests. I don’t know how large-scale and successful they will be, I’m not sure. Because successful actions are those that, even if they do not look spontaneous, are actually carefully prepared. This is the first. And second, yes, he will call for a boycott, of course, a boycott of the elections after these protests. But I don't believe the boycott will be successful.

A. Ezhov: Against this background, are you following Sobchak’s campaign? I see that the girl has not left the federal channels, just a few hours ago.

V. Solovey: Crimea was a powerful vaccine that was able to temporarily reverse the psychological and sociocultural situation

V. Solovey: She stays on federal channels precisely because she compensates Navalny. She must appear in the federal public media space as a replacement for Alexei Navalny; this, firstly, is a rather obvious political technology move, but generally accurate. And she even received carte blanche, since Navalny’s popularity is not declining as quickly as the Presidential Administration would like. This is the first. And secondly, she must win over to her side some of those who would participate in the boycott of the elections and support Navalny’s protest. Young people who, as far as I know, according to sociology, in the absence of Navalny, are ready to vote for Sobchak.

S. Kryuchkov: Titov, whose headquarters you came to, is an alternative candidate from the liberals for people over 40. That is, not for the young.

V. Solovey: Yes, you are trying to complete this scheme that I started. No, he still targets a different audience, I think the 25+ audience.

S. Kryuchkov: Websites write: “Valery Solovey came to Titov’s headquarters in order to supervise ideological issues.” What does this mean? What does it mean to oversee ideology at a businessman’s headquarters?

V. Solovey: Of course, it sounds a little Soviet, but, in fact, this is a very interesting task. I don’t know whether it will be fully implemented, since it is very difficult in terms of technology and technical skills. Both Titov and, in general, the Party of Growth, of which he is the leader, adheres to the position of right-wing liberalism, which is very honorable and effective, at least in the world of ideology, but in Russia it was not possible to adapt it to our soil. I'll explain it to you, let's just use our fingers. In our country there are 18 million self-employed people, several million small and medium-sized businessmen, the views of these people are economic, not political, they are absolutely liberal views, not just liberal - libertarian. They want low taxes, they don't want to deal with the state, which you know very well, this is ready ground for the liberal party. But we need to find an approach to them, we need to find a message to which they would be sensitive.

S. Kryuchkov: This is aimed at what future?

V. Solovey: This is a long-term goal. Because when one election ends, another will begin. I can say that the Party of Growth is already preparing for regional elections, right now.

S. Kryuchkov: So we are talking about party history, not about Titov’s individual history?

V. Solovey: No, individual and party. In this case they are inextricably linked. But this is the task of adapting ideology. We'll see what happens.

A. Ezhov: Many of our listeners, who write SMS messages to the number +7 985 970-45-45 and use the vyzvon Twitter account, do not agree with you on this, regarding expectations of changes in society: “Where Valery Solovey saw an angry society, maybe at a gas plant, where people were jubilant?” Well, this is the kind of message. This is a story that rather concerns large cities or...

V. Solovey: Now it is believed that Dmitry Anatolyevich should stay.

V. Solovey: No, this story concerns everyone in Russia, they just react differently. You can be extremely angry and, as very often happens in Russia, go drinking vodka, punch your neighbor in the face, or quarrel. Aggression can spread like this. As for the GAZ plant, we know what kind of audience there was and who proposed it to Vladimir Vladimirovich, it was not a worker after all, so what? Even if they had to bring specially trained extras there, you can imagine how afraid the really minded people would be.

A. Ezhov: We spent almost half of the first program talking about the electoral prospects of Vladimir Putin, first of all, but Elena Ivankovskaya in a Youtube chat asks a perhaps partly naive question: “Is another scenario possible other than the election of Putin? Nobody expected Trump to win, but he won. Or does this not work in our reality?”

V. Solovey: This is not such a naive question. This is one of the reasons, perhaps the main one, why Alexei Navalny will not be allowed to participate in the elections. Not because he might win, but because his participation itself would create entirely unanticipated political dynamics. That is, this would not be the Trump effect or the Brexit effect as in the UK, but the very participation of an alternative candidate with an alternative program speaking on central television channels could cause a completely unforeseen effect. He is trying to avoid this effect, because in Russia, and this applies not only presidential elections, the authorities want to control everything, they are afraid of the unexpected, they are afraid of those areas that are beyond their control. Notice how she tries to take control of everyday life, even intimate life, and invades all spheres of culture, art, not to mention business. She is fundamentally afraid of everything that is out of her control. Because, from her point of view, there is a threat there. You know how children are afraid of the dark, because someone is hiding in the dark. Dentists are acceptable. Likewise, the government is afraid of everything that is outside its control. At least the government groups.

S. Kryuchkov: Substantially afraid of what goes beyond its boundaries, but within itself. Let's say you note that Prime Minister Medvedev mentioned that he does not see himself as president in the current election season.

V. Solovey: This could be either a subtle game on the part of Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev, that’s what I don’t really believe, or simply an inability to accurately formulate his thought. Although, if they helped him prepare answers to these questions, then perhaps this is a subtle, far-reaching hint, but the fact is that it is necessary to calculate the public reaction, our public does not perceive, and the Western public, I can say with complete certainty, that comes from the lips of our prime minister as a strategic and finely thought out game.

A. Ezhov: Let's talk a little about the Moscow events.

V. Solovey: What’s going on?

A. Yezhov: Look what’s happening. The action of the revolutionary communist youth union took place here with the posting of offensive stickers in Moscow on Alexander Solzhenitsyn Street, they call the writer a literary Vlasovite. And literally the day before at Artdocfest there was an attack by SERB activists. This is what they react to this very calmly law enforcement agencies, is this carte blanche?

V. Solovey: Why is it calm? They also opened a criminal case against these SERB activists.

A. Ezhov: Yes, but at the same time there is a curator for SERB activists at Center E and his name is known.

V. Solovey: Yes, I understand. In general, the government uses non-conventional means, let’s call it such a beautiful term, in order to maintain control. Since you cannot use law enforcement agencies to openly violate the Constitution, although in our country these boundaries are already blurred, you are trying to “mobilize” supposedly public activists, who are actually controlled by you, to imitate public reaction. And this is a very good means of control for the time being, until these tools, as was the case with the campaign against Matilda, begin to get out of your control. This is the first.

And secondly, there is always a danger here, that when you limit your own monopoly on violence, violence in a figurative sense, in favor of some groups you alienate it, sacrifice it, then it begins to erode. And then don’t be surprised that in a critical situation a mass of people will suddenly appear, as was the case in Donbass, who will say: “Yes, we ourselves will now restore order, we will now create squads, self-defense units, people’s squads for the inculcation of morality, people’s squads for defense of liberalism, whatever. And we will take action ourselves.” We must then be prepared for this; this is an inevitable consequence of the policy of such encouragement of unauthorized activity that imitates public activity.

V. Solovey: Igor Ivanovich Sechin cannot curb his appetites

S. Kryuchkov: Are those who play this game and send out such signals ready for the return of this wave?

V. Solovey: They are confident that they are in control of the situation. This is an eternal misconception, similar to the story of Papa Carlo. Remember, he made a beautiful boy out of a log and equipped him for school, and where did the boy go, he sold everything and went to the circus. It’s the same with these golems, into which they breathed life and let them go. But they will turn against them. But the main thing is that people look: “Listen, why don’t we have the right...” This idea of ​​legitimizing violence will certainly be in the public consciousness, it is already there.

And the aggression that we talked about in the first part is dispersed, widespread, when you hit your neighbor in the face after drinking a glass of vodka, it may well be directed against the boss, against the director of the DEZ, against the manager, against the owner of the enterprise. It's all the same as in '17. This can turn around instantly, I emphasize, historically instantly, within literally a few weeks. As soon as the appearance of power collapses or weakens, suddenly people will understand: “Look, the police are only protecting themselves, they are afraid of us. Let me go get social justice. I will take revenge on those who, from my point of view, offended me.”

A. Ezhov: Our viewer Alexey Frolov, who watches us on the Youtube channel “Echo of Moscow,” still can’t calm down on the topic of a worker from the GAZ plant: “Who did he turn out to be, a FSO major?”

V. Solovey: Well, he wasn’t a worker, that’s for sure.

A. Ezhov: I think Alexey Frolov was satisfied with the answer.

S. Kryuchkov: I would not leave the topic with Vladimir Vladimirovich, even if he is our hero...

V. Nightingale: He will not leave us.

S. Kryuchkov: He will hold a press conference this week, followed by the United Russia Congress. In addition to the listed topics, the declared victory and the withdrawal of troops from Syria, demographic history, what else will become such features?

V. Solovey: At the beginning of next year, his blitz visits to the regions will be about responding to complaints. This is a direct connection between the king and the people. People hit it with their heads and say that there is a landfill there or the water flowing is rusty.

A. Yezhov: You can buy a dress for a girl, you can give a puppy.

V. Solovey: Yes, yes. These scenarios have already been written, the only question is in which regions they will be. And he immediately solves the problem. Because decide social problems society, we cannot, well, we lack resources, strength, desire, but we can create the impression that problems are being solved as a whole by solving some specific, local issues. And it always works very well as a propaganda tool, like a television picture. The boyars on the side, why didn’t they overlook it, they really won’t impale them, although the people would warmly welcome it, the boyars would be impaled or thrown to the archers for punishment. But solving someone’s private problem – yes.

A. Ezhov: As for media money, after this whole story with Russia’s exclusion from the Olympics, the Kremlin’s reaction, it seemed to me, was quite mild. The hysteria on state channels and talk shows continued, but Putin himself spoke rather restrainedly, this was not a ready decision on participation or non-participation, or is this part...

V. Solovey: It seems to me that the decision was ready, everything was thought out, because it was more or less clear where things were going, the scenarios were thought out and they decided to choose, firstly, the one that minimizes losses, and secondly, there was The compensator is Vladimir Vladimirovich’s announcement that he is going to the polls. I think I initially assumed that he would report it a little later, but it compensated very well, this classic displacement of unwanted news, dangerous news, by stronger news.

S. Kryuchkov: But there is also a parallel story, if we announce a boycott, then we will miss the next two Olympics during Putin’s tenure.

V. Solovey: Sobchak does not leave federal channels precisely because she compensates Navalny

V. Solovey: Naturally. And now you can use very moderate anti-Westernism - they are trying to spoil us with all their might, but despite this, we behave with dignity and win victories.

A. Ezhov: Regarding anti-Westernism. Official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova demonstrated new lexical heights. She accused Western partners of wanting to “capitalize on our military achievements.” It seems to me, or for a high official of the foreign policy department, by the way, you teach at MGIMO, is this a normal choice of terminology? How do you think? Or does everything fit the context?

V. Solovey: Since I am at MGIMO, which is affiliated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, I never comment on official statements of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This is corporate ethics. I think you will understand this.

S. Kryuchkov: Let's return to the neutral flag and the Olympics in South Korea. This will happen on the eve of the presidential elections. Will it affect the internal agenda? After all, it’s a win-win option, look, under a neutral flag they tore everyone apart - they proved that the decision was the right one, they lost - and under a neutral flag everything went through.

V. Solovey: I think that, as usual, there will be victories. And we have candidates who are capable of winning, these victories will be brightly highlighted, they will create a very good background. Then the president will meet the winners, treat them kindly, and reward them. And those who do not win, you can forget about them and say: “They fought with dignity, but everything was against them.” Remember how against our players the green lawn, fine weather, the support of the stands, in general, everything is against us. Everything will turn out to be against the losing Olympians.

V. Solovey: Russia’s main deficit is a lack of perspective and understanding of the future

A. Yezhov: A listener from the Krasnodar region is interested: “Human rights activist Lyudmila Alekseeva was given a state award - is this a new flirtation, democracy 5.0?”, as an unsubscribed listener writes. Subscribe.

V. Solovey: This is an attempt by part of the Russian leadership to maintain a certain balance and pursue a pragmatic policy. That is, there are quite a few people who supervise domestic policy, informational, that all these stupid cruelties, horror stories, they do not lead to anything good. That they only turn society away from power, they set up a negative attitude among the intelligentsia, a significant part of which is liberal, therefore it is better to pursue a pragmatic policy, there is no need to intimidate unnecessarily, there is no point, everything is already in order, everything is under control. This is the position of conditionally pragmatists, realists. And there is another group that says: “No, no, guys, what are you talking about. God forbid you give them a little slack, they will immediately come out. Do you remember how it was in 89-91? Therefore, under no circumstances.” This is the group that was traumatized in August 1991 and is still experiencing the consequences of that birth trauma for itself. This group is very influential. So different groups have different positions, but I wouldn't say it's a clever game, subtle. Nothing of the kind. Some say: “You don’t need to do this.” Others: “No, no. We’d better do this to avoid it.”

A. Ezhov: Regarding the situation around Suleiman Kerimov, who was detained in France. What do you think of this whole story? And you wrote that a similar fate could probably await other Russian officials after February.

V. Solovey: That’s why other Russian officials will not go to celebrate New Year outside the Russian Federation.

A. Yezhov: And to friendly countries?

V. Solovey: Friendly countries are China, Kyrgyzstan, the Maldives, by the way, are among these countries. The Maldives is wonderful, but you understand that you cannot have an estate in the Maldives, and you will not have vineyards there. Estates and vineyards elsewhere. For at least six months no one will bother going abroad now.

A. Ezhov: That is, such a serious story?

V. Solovey: It’s not even a matter of whether it’s an accident or a trend. This is fear. Really scared. If Matvienko stated several times: “We accept you, but the Federation Council is like the possible beginning of political purges, a political witch hunt.” How elegantly she phrased it. This is a mass mood. And the recommendation was repeated that gentlemen, you need to choose: you are either loyal to the countries where your families, your relatives live, where your real estate is, or you are loyal to Russia. Choose.

A. Ezhov: Matvienko and his delegation are going to the DPRK, I don’t know.

V. Solovey: With the delegation, with the delegation.

A. Ezhov: I’m not hinting at anything.

V. Solovey: Do you think there will be no extradition from the DPRK? No, stop.

A. Ezhov: Well, maybe the poster will be torn down.

V. Solovey: No, stop.

V. Solovey: In the public administration reform, in the criteria, the word “democracy” is not there at all

S. Kryuchkov: Let's talk about those who may potentially have, yes, most likely, have these estates and vineyards in the West. The litigation between Rosneft and AFK Sistema will not go away. This ping-pong, which continues against the background of the launched election campaign, of persons associated with the name of the president and the main candidate, what does it indicate? Either Rosneft again for 131 billion, then AFK in return...

V. Solovey: What to do with AFK when they are pressing you in the corner and want to ruin you. It’s clear that Igor Ivanovich Sechin needs money, but so what, many people need money. What do you want, take everything? Therefore, the only way for AFK now is to roll out a counter-risk with a huge amount in order to attract public attention. Because AFK’s PR people, I give it their due, are quite professional people, they understand perfectly well that the more noise, the less the Kremlin likes it. The Kremlin, through the mouth of the president, said: “Well, you will come to an agreement in the end.” Igor Ivanovich Sechin cannot moderate his appetites.

But the president doesn’t like all these stories. He doesn't like them because they attract unwanted attention from, well, Russian society may not really interest him, from the West. Because it really affects the investment climate. This is how people will look: “Listen, they can ruin AFK there, this is the largest non-resource corporation in Russia, they can ruin you. You call for development and investment in the digital economy. So you can ruin any non-resource corporation because someone wanted it.” These are all very bad reputation stories.

A. Ezhov: Since we remembered Igor Ivanovich Sechin, a few words about Ulyukaev. The former minister made his final speech last week. What kind of sentence do you expect, conditional, real, will any scheme be used?

V. Solovey: I assumed that his article would be reclassified so that he could get out and receive a suspended sentence. Let's see, because Igor Ivanovich Sechin was still able, despite the unfavorable course of the process for himself, unfavorable means public. Because he was absolutely sure that the trial would take place privately, not in the light of Jupiter and the spotlight. But he still managed to achieve a fighting draw, Igor Ivanovich. We'll see, the outcome of the trial will tell.

S. Kryuchkov: What if this is used as some kind of PR effect? Let’s say they give a conditional “bribe-taker” a sentence, introduce some error into the sentence, then, after the election fanfare has died down, they go through the appeal process and quietly release him.

V. Solovey: Such a scenario is also possible, let’s see. You see how Russia is structured. Here, in fact, there is elite pluralism, the president is in the role of referee, I am the heavyweights in the ring.

A. Ezhov: Political scientist, MGIMO professor Valery Solovey was today a guest of the “Personally Yours” program. Thank you for watching and listening.

V. Solovey: Thank you.

A. Ezhov: We’ll be back in just over 10 minutes in the “Day Spread” program. This is Stas Kryuchkov, Andrey Yezhov. Join us.

https://www.site/2016-03-25/politolog_valeriy_solovey_my_pered_ochen_sereznymi_politicheskimi_peremenami

“After the elections, serious restrictions will be introduced on the exit of citizens from the country”

Political scientist Valery Solovey: we are facing very serious political changes

Historian, political analyst, publicist Valery Solovey published new book- “The ultimate weapon. Fundamentals of psychological warfare and media manipulation.” Why are Russians so easily susceptible to propaganda and how to “decode” them? Based on this, how will internal political processes develop in the near future? What is the most likely outcome of the election? Will our connections with the outside world change?

“In the manipulation of consciousness, Western democracies, Nazis and Soviets followed the same path”

— Valery Dmitrievich, readers are wondering why you wrote another book on an issue that has already been considered by dozens of other authors? For example, at one time Sergei Kara-Murza’s book “Manipulation of Consciousness” was popular. What errors and shortcomings do you see in it?

— There is not a single worthy book in Russia that talks about propaganda and media manipulation. Not a single one - I emphasize! Kara-Murza’s famous book became so popular only because it was the first in Russia on this topic. But in my own way methodological basis and the content is frankly mediocre. Further, my book, for the first time in literature, combines cognitive psychology with long-known stories about methods, techniques and techniques of propaganda. So far, there has been no such analysis and generalization in the literature on this topic. Meanwhile, cognitive psychology is extremely important because it explains why people are susceptible to propaganda and why propaganda is inevitable. As long as humanity exists, propaganda will exist. And finally, it must be said that I covered the topic of propaganda using current examples that are well understood by readers. The result was a book that was even noted by the leaders of the Russian propaganda machine. As my friends told me, they said about it: “The only worthwhile book in Russian on this topic.” True, they also added: “But it would be better if such a book had not been published at all.” I think this is very high praise. In addition, the first edition was sold out in three weeks. Now the second one is coming out. This is my answer why I wrote this book.

Valery Solovey: “The first thing people pay attention to is the hair. If a person is bald - in the eyes. A man needs to make sure he has good teeth and shoes.” from the personal archive of Valery Solovy

— You once said that the concept of the “Overton Window”, which came from the West, revealing the secret mechanisms of undermining social norms, is nothing more than a pseudo-theory. Why?

— The “Overton Window” is a propaganda myth. And this concept itself is conspiratorial in nature: they say, there is a group of people who are planning a decades-long strategy to corrupt society. Nothing like this has ever happened anywhere in history and cannot happen due to the imperfection of human nature. I suggest that a person who adheres to the Overton Window concept plan his life for at least a month and live according to his plan. Let's see what happens. Love for this kind of conspiracy theory is typical of those who are not able to manage even their own lives, let alone manage anything at all.

— In our country, the “Overton Window” is remembered when problems with morality are pointed out. Patriarch Kirill said so: “Pedophilia will be legalized after homosexuality.”

— All changes in human history occur spontaneously. This does not mean that there is necessarily some kind of conspiracy behind them and the legalization of homosexual marriage in some European countries will certainly lead to the legalization of pedophilia. Moreover, in one case we are talking about adults who do something voluntarily, and in the other about minors who have parents, and the legalization of pedophilia is possible only through violation of human rights and violence. Therefore, yes, what was anti-norm 100-200 years ago suddenly becomes acceptable today. But this is a natural process, there is no need to see here the “furry paw of the Antichrist” who came to this world to arrange Armageddon through homosexual marriages or something else.

At the same time, I want to say that a reaction can occur in the same way, naturally. I do not at all exclude the possibility that European society may swing back to conservative values. And not because a group of conspirators or Kremlin agents in Europe will be operating somewhere, but simply because society will decide that enough is enough, they’ve played enough, they need to think about self-preservation.

“The leaders of the Russian propaganda machine said: “The only worthwhile book in Russian on this topic. But it would be better if it did not come out.”” pycode.ru

— Speaking about the manipulation of consciousness in our country, from what historical period can we count them? Since the time of the Bolsheviks or even earlier?

— If we talk about manipulation in general, then from the moment people learned to speak. But if we are talking about mass manipulation, then from the moment mass communication channels appeared. The starting point of mass deception can be considered the emergence of the media. These are, naturally, newspapers, radio, television. And in this sense, everything is more or less developed countries followed the same path, that of Western democracies - the USA, Great Britain and so on, that of Nazi Germany, that of Soviet Russia. Propaganda occurs in all countries without exception.

Another thing is the quality of propaganda, sophistication, and the presence of pluralism. In the USA, there are media holdings owned by various independent owners. Therefore, different propaganda campaigns balance each other and during election “marathons” citizens have freedom of choice. Well, or the illusion of freedom of choice. That is, where there is pluralism, propaganda is always more subtle and sophisticated.

— In one of your interviews, you said that the BBC is one of the most objective English-language television companies. Do you still think so?

“This company confirms this reputation with its many years of work. All television companies make mistakes, they are all dependent in one way or another, but the BBC suffers from this least of all.

“Russia managed to create the best propaganda machine”

— Is our propaganda more lame and stupid?

- I wouldn't say that. Russia has managed to create, by far, the best propaganda machine. But it is focused exclusively on its own population, since propaganda outside has not been very successful. At least in the European area. Our propaganda is carried out by very professional people. These people, in particular, learned a lesson from the information failure of the summer of 2008. Remember the war for South Ossetia, which Russia won militarily, but, in general opinion, lost informationally and propagandaly? Since 2014, we have seen that the propaganda mistakes of 2008 no longer exist.

But we must understand that any propaganda has its limits. Russian propaganda reached its limits at the turn of 2015-16. And you and I will gradually observe its fading. Or, as they often say today, the refrigerator will gradually begin to defeat the TV. I think that at the turn of 2016-17 its strength will weaken quite seriously.

“Today’s diligent resuscitation of the cult of Stalin, for example, casts doubts...

- There is no need to fight this. This will collapse on its own as soon as the regime weakens. Stalin in current realities is nothing more than a propaganda symbol that has no real content or materializing power. Those who call for the return of Stalin in our country believe that he should return only for their neighbors, but not for themselves. When it comes to selfish interests, none of these loud-mouthed Stalinists are ready to sacrifice anything. So the cult of Stalin is a fiction. It’s just that the government is exploiting the Stalin era in order to legitimize some of its repressive measures. But no more. There is a rule for complex social systems. It says that returning to the past, no matter who wants it, is impossible.

RIA Novosti/Evgeniy Biyatov

- But “both old and young” come to Stalin, as if under a spell, with flowers. Can you tell us about the methods of decoding personal and social consciousness?

- Use common sense, judge people by their deeds, read more, or don’t watch TV at all, or no more than 20 minutes a day. If you are called upon to vote for a party that promised something 5-10 years ago and has not done anything by now, do not vote for it under any circumstances. The actions speak for themselves.

— And then, in the future, should employees of propaganda media be lustrated? Are what they commit crimes? Should they be held accountable?

— It is known that the Nuremberg trials equated propaganda with a crime against humanity. Therefore, in a sense, this question can be answered in the affirmative. As for lustration, I do not rule it out, but it is too early to say who this will affect.

“The masses will come out, but this will not lead to civil war and the collapse of the state”

— This year, for the first time in a long time, elections for half of the State Duma will be held in single-mandate constituencies. Can we expect that the election campaign will become more diverse, and that new faces will come to the Duma, revive it, and make it a “place for discussion”?

“Despite the fact that single-mandate constituencies have been returned, I believe that those most dangerous to the preservation of the regime will still simply not be allowed to participate in the elections. Even at the registration stage, candidates go through a “sieve”, which allows us to weed out those disloyal to the regime. And even if some of the undesirables are allowed to participate in the elections, they will experience severe pressure and will generally regret that they went. In the elections they will create the impression of competition, but not the competition itself; everyone will have the same message, just a different style. Therefore, the Duma itself will generally retain a decorative character.

RIA Novosti/Alexander Utkin

- Do you see any real opposition to the regime in the country, in principle, capable of leading the people?

— In Russia there is an opposition that the regime allows to exist. Because any real opposition to them is destroyed, literally and figuratively. But the regime is afraid of even weak opposition.

— In this case, the reader asks, how do you, a specialist in media manipulation, assess the chances of the Putin leadership to formalize and legitimize in the eyes of the population the transformation of Russia into a semi-closed, anti-democratic autocracy similar to the countries of Central Asia?

— Indeed, today the ruling group in Russia is concerned with the question of how to maintain its dominance until 2035-40. At least, I had to hear arguments on this subject from people close to the so-called “elite”. But I believe that in the next couple of years we will see the limits of this mode’s capabilities. I agree that its representatives will try to legitimize their power. But, one way or another, they will soon run out of opportunities for this.

— What about “physical” measures, for example, closing borders?

— After the elections to the State Duma this year, serious restrictions will probably be introduced on the departure of Russian citizens from the country.

— Do you mean the law on exit visas?

- No, it's unlikely. Unspoken recommendations will be given to officials at all levels and their families not to leave the country. And if officials are so seriously infringed upon, they will not tolerate any part of society remaining free in the country. In Russia, if serfdom is introduced, this applies to all classes. This is a historical tradition. According to my information, a tourist tax will be introduced, which will cut off the opportunity for many categories of citizens to travel abroad.

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— Will this become a factor that, on the contrary, will bring the collapse of the regime closer? After all, this step will affect not only “creaks”, but also ordinary people who previously allowed themselves to relax in decent hotels in Turkey, Egypt, Greece, Tunisia and so on for relatively little money.

— You are right, regimes collapse not because of undermining by the opposition and external enemies. They collapse due to the stupidity of their managers. And sooner or later these nonsense begin to acquire a malignant character. If you look at the history of fallen regimes, you get the impression that those who ruled them seemed to be deliberately leading things to collapse. In general, regarding any political processes in Russia, there is an axiom that the dynamics of the masses are unpredictable. And you can never know in advance what seemingly insignificant things can lead to serious political shifts.

— Another reader’s question is appropriate here: “What scenario is most possible in Russia? The first is that Shoigu (or another conservative) becomes president, punitive and protective measures are tightened, that is, the transition to USSR No. 2. The second is the “Libyan scenario”. The third is the “Rose Revolution” scenario. The fourth is a peaceful evolution towards European democracy. Or the fifth - the collapse of the Russian Federation into many small states as a consequence of the current colonial pseudo-federal system?

— What I definitely don’t expect is the collapse of Russia. When they tell me this, I clearly understand that this is pure trading in fear. I believe that Russia is facing very serious political changes. They will happen in the not so distant medium term and will change our political landscape beyond recognition. These changes will be predominantly peaceful. And then we will move, it is not very clear where. This will depend on the outcome of the changes.

“In the early 1990s, the masses also quite peacefully took to the streets and declared: “We can’t live like this anymore.”

- Yes, they will come out. And not for political reasons, but for socio-economic ones. I think that this is very likely, especially in large cities. But this will not lead to either civil war or the collapse of the state. I don't believe it.

RIA Novosti/Alexey Danichev

“But when the protest is peaceful, it is easy to suppress it. It’s not for nothing that a person asks you a question about Shoigu and the tightening of punitive and protective measures.

— The authorities are constantly moving in this direction, but one should not exaggerate the loyalty of the repressive apparatus. She is not at all what she seems. In a critical situation, they simply may not follow orders and move away.

- Not the collapse of the country, but the disappearance of some regions, for example the North Caucasus - is this possible?

— I don’t think that these republics want to leave Russia. In fact, they feel good about it. Where should they go? Without it they will not survive at all. Therefore, they will bargain, trying to impose their terms. But as a result of political changes, I think Moscow’s policy towards these republics will become more balanced and meaningful. Personally, I don’t think that paying huge amounts of money for political loyalty is right. It corrupts. Yes, and it has already corrupted.

“Our politicians use neo-Eurasianism and religion as long as it benefits them”

— Do we still have sane nationalist, or rather national-democratic forces after the Ukrainian events?

— As for organized nationalism, it drags out a miserable existence. He is not allowed to raise his head; many leaders, like Belov, are behind bars. Others, like Demushkin, understand that if they show activity, they will follow Belov. But as for nationalism in general as a kind of social mood, it certainly exists. And these sentiments will soon be in political demand.

— Are you going to revive your national democratic party “New Force” when more favorable times come for public politics?

“It was frozen due to the fact that we were threatened with reprisals.” But in general, I believe that both today and in the future the party format is futile. I think that other formats will be in demand.

RIA Novosti/Yuri Ivanov

— What are the prospects for members of the “January 25 Committee” Igor Strelkov and other “Novorossovites” coming to power?

— There are different people in this organization: nationalists, Soviet “imperials,” and Orthodox monarchists. I don't see that this organization has any prospects. But some, some of its leaders, do. And I do not rule out that 2-3 people from them will be able to play a role in those upcoming political changes that we talked about above.

— In general, do Russians have a chance to self-organize following the example of Israel or Japan, that is, to create a national state? This is a question from one of our readers.

— Of course, there is such a chance, since Russians feel like a single people. Precisely Russians, not Russians. So Russia is in fact, in fact, a national state; all that remains is to formalize the superstructure - the laws - in accordance with this reality and change the policy so that it coincides with the interests of the national majority.

— Do you think Russians have a national identity these days?

- Yes, it exists, it manifests itself in everyday life. Russians are just afraid to talk about it out loud. At least two thirds of Russians feel their national consciousness. Just don’t confuse real Russians and “literary” ones - national costumes, cuisine, instruments, etc. It's just a cheap shot. The nation state is a modern state, not an archaism.

“Moscow’s policy towards these republics will become more balanced. Paying huge amounts of money for political loyalty is wrong.” RIA Novosti/Said Tsarnaev

— The overwhelming majority of the current “Russian nationalists” are Orthodox activists and are convinced that the Russian national state must stand on the foundation of Orthodoxy, without it it cannot be done. Personally, I find this format of a nation state unpleasant. A multinational and cosmopolitan society would be better, but it would be secular and with freedom of ideological, including religious, choice.

— Your remark is appropriate. But, firstly, if you are afraid, then it is better not to do anything at all, not even leave the house. There is always a risk when you do something. And, secondly, the results of this process will depend on those who are at the head of it. Because there is a general sociological pattern: those at the bottom copy those at the top. And if the elite sets clear goals that are understandable and beneficial to the national majority, nothing terrible will happen.

Let's say you say: we want to provide the national majority with affordable housing in order to reverse demographic situation. The lower classes respond: “Great! We want! This is what a nation state is. But if someone, instead of clear and understandable goals, uses myths like “Stalinism” and says that it is in it that the original Russian character and style of behavior of those in power is concentrated, then this is no longer a national state. This is completely different.

— Is “neo-Eurasianism”, which dominates the official ideology of the ruling group, serious? Do you think they really believe in it or use it like the notorious “Stalinism”?

— To believe or not to believe is not a question in politics. They find it convenient for themselves. This gives some ideological justification for what they are doing. They use it as long as it benefits them. And religion, by the way, too. And if suddenly the weather vane of mood in society swings in the other direction, they will become Russian nationalists or even Muslims. Therefore, you should not focus too much on this issue.

“Russia made no effort to keep Ukraine in its orbit of influence”

— Since we mentioned neo-Eurasianism, we’ll end our conversation with a series of questions about Ukraine: it is perhaps the main victim of the ideology of “neo-Eurasianism”, or the “Russian world”.

One of our readers reminds us that Brzezinski is credited with saying: “Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine, Russia automatically turns into an empire.” That is, I would like to know your opinion: is the “furry paw of American imperialism” visible in the breakdown of relations between Russia and Ukraine?

— I believe that the separation of Russia and Ukraine was a natural process. It started not two years ago, but back in the early 1990s. And even then, many analysts said that Ukraine would inevitably drift towards the West. Moreover, Russia did not make any effort special effort to keep Ukraine in its orbit of influence. Or, at least, she did not make the efforts that would be effective. I don’t mean supplying gas at reduced prices, but cultural and intellectual leverage. They weren't used and no one cared. So, I repeat, this is a completely natural process.

And after the annexation of Crimea to Russia and the war in Donbass, the point of no return has been passed. Now Ukraine will definitely never be a fraternal state with Russia. At the same time, I don’t think that the West will accept Ukraine either. Most likely, she will drag out a poor existence. But this does not mean that she will come to bow in Moscow. Anti-Moscow and anti-Russian sentiments will henceforth be the cornerstone for the formation of the national self-awareness of Ukrainians. Here the question can be closed.

RIA Novosti/Andrey Stenin

— So, Russia will never be an empire again?

— Well, this was clear even in the 1990s, and not only in connection with Brzezinski’s geopolitical views. And now we find ourselves at the point of post-Soviet existence. Or rather, we are stuck there and are not developing anywhere. True, this inertia has already exhausted itself. Therefore, political changes are inevitable.

— Is there an opportunity in the future to resolve the “Crimean issue” in a compromise in order to get rid of sanctions?

“I think there is a chance to freeze this problem and ensure de facto recognition of Crimea. As for the Crimean Tatars, there are not very many of them. And they can be offered a formula based on which they would understand that it is better to live in peace. If they understand that there is no other alternative for them, they will make peace. This is quite enough. De jure recognition of Crimea Russian territory depends on the position of Ukraine. If we talk about sanctions against Russia, then there are those imposed for Crimea, and others for Donbass. And these are different sanctions. And the sanctions for Crimea are far from the most sensitive.

— What, in your opinion, awaits Ukraine in general and Donbass in particular?

— The fate of Ukraine depends on the quality of its elite. If an elite appears there, capable of leading the country onto new paths of development, then everything will be fine. I don't think it will break up or become a federation. But, one way or another, he will remain the “sick man of Europe.”

The fate of Donbass is terrible. In any situation, it is doomed to be a kind of “black hole” on the geopolitical map. Most likely, it will turn out to be a pacified territory, but de facto neither as part of Ukraine nor as part of Russia. This will be a region where crime, corruption, economic decline will reign - a kind of European Somalia. There is no point in modernizing anything there, because no one really needs Donbass. For Ukraine and Russia, this is a stone on their feet. But people get used to everything. I have friends and relatives who live there, have already adapted to this lifestyle and do not want to leave there.

RIA Novosti/Dan Levy

Reference

Valery Solovey was born in 1960. After graduating from the Faculty of History of Moscow State University, he worked at the Academy of Sciences and the Gorbachev Foundation. Completed an internship at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Doctor of Historical Sciences (theme of the dissertation is “The Russian Question” and its influence on the domestic and foreign policy of Russia). Currently, he is a professor at MGIMO, head of the department of public relations, and author of a course of lectures on the manipulation of public consciousness.